主题：The Impact of the Three Gorges Dam：Differentiated Adaptations of Rural Households to Local Climate Change（三峡大坝的影响：农村家庭对于当地气候变化的不同适应）

主讲人：北京大学经济学院 刘冲助理教授

主持人：西南财经大学财政税务学院 李蒙副教授

时间：2019年5月27日12:00-13:10

地点：柳林校区格致楼811

主办单位：财政税务学院 科研处

主讲人简介：

刘冲，于北京大学获经济学博士，曾在清华大学经济管理学院博士后工作站和世界银行工作，现任北京大学经济学院助理教授。研究领域是公共经济学和发展经济学，近年来在Economic Journal, International Journal of Industrial Organization, Economics Letters，《经济研究》《管理世界》《经济学（季刊）》《世界经济》《金融研究》等国际国内著名期刊发表论文20多篇；并且先后主持国家自然科学基金、农业部农村经济研究中心研究基金等多项科研课题。

内容提要：

Using the precipitation decline in downstream induced by the initial impoundment of the world’s largest hydroelectric dam in 2003 as a natural experiment, we identify differentiated patterns of adaptations to climate change by rural households’ initial endowments. Using gridded-monthly data and a difference-in-differences design, we confirm persistent decrease in spring precipitation in downstream of the dam, which is a hypothesis raised by previous hydrological studies. We further show that the decrease in precipitation leads to a 14 percent reduction in the yields of rice using a panel of over 40,000 rural households (1989-2014). In response to the continuous reduction in crop yields, small and subsistence-oriented farmers increase rice cropping area to maintain total output. In contrast, large and market-oriented farmers choose to migrate and find opportunities from less affected regions.